Privacy Policy

1.1 Information you give us

Uploaded photos. Digital photos often carry hidden metadata, such as the device model, the time the photo was taken, and sometimes GPS location. When you upload a photo, we remove this metadata and store only the cleaned copy, including for profile images, banners, and impression photos. We cannot remove what is visible in a photo, such as names, addresses, or a recognizable place, so please check photos before uploading them, especially if you plan to include them in a post.

Please do not include sensitive information in notes, uploads, posts, or comments. That includes health information, government ID numbers, financial account numbers, or information about other people. The Service does not need it.

1.2 Information we collect automatically

Location. The Service does not ask for your device's location, and we do not use your IP address to work out your precise location. An IP address can indicate your approximate location, such as your region. Because the Service is offered only in the United States, we use your residence confirmation, the country your IP address indicates at sign-up, and the billing country of your payment card to confirm eligibility and prevent fraud. We check eligibility at sign-up and checkout, not each time you sign in. Separately, our hosting and security providers evaluate the country or region indicated by the IP address of requests to the Service, to enforce sanctions restrictions and protect the Service. We do not store that per-request location with your account. As described in Section 1.1, we remove location metadata from photos you upload.

1.3 Information from other sources

• Stripe tells us about your subscription, payments, invoices, and payment failures or disputes. Where Stripe provides it for tax or fraud-prevention purposes, this may include limited billing details such as your billing country or postal code. We also use the billing country to confirm that paid plans are bought only by people who live in the United States (Section 4).
• Other users may give us information about you, for example by reporting your content or blocking you.
• Indigo onboarding providers tell us whether a panel member's onboarding was completed.
• Market data providers, such as prediction markets, cryptocurrency exchanges, and stock market data services, give us question and price data. That data is about markets, not about you.

1.4 Information we create

From your viewings, we calculate scores and statistics, such as accuracy, skill scores, Brier scores, calibration, sample sizes, and leaderboard eligibility and rank. We also calculate internally whether you meet the criteria to be considered for the Indigo panel (Section 3.3). We may also record integrity signals, such as indications of duplicate accounts or automated activity.

2.1 What we use

We use only technologies that are strictly necessary to provide the Service:

We serve our pages, fonts, and scripts from our own domain. We do not use advertising cookies, third-party analytics, session-recording tools, or social-media plugins. If we ever add non-essential technologies, we will update this policy first and ask for your consent where the law requires it.

When you subscribe or manage billing, you use Stripe's hosted checkout and customer portal. Stripe sets its own cookies there, for example to prevent fraud, under Stripe's privacy policy.

Our account and security emails do not contain tracking pixels or remote images.

2.2 Do Not Track and Global Privacy Control

We do not track you across other websites over time, and we do not allow third parties to collect information about your online activity across websites through the Service. Because we do not do this kind of tracking, the Service works the same way whether or not your browser sends a "Do Not Track" signal. We treat a Global Privacy Control signal as described in Section 10.

3.1 Purposes

We use personal information to:

1. Provide the Service. This includes creating and securing your account, running viewings, sealing impressions, choosing images, recording selections, resolving questions, scoring results, calculating statistics and rankings, showing profiles and feeds, and delivering the features of your plan.
2. Protect the integrity of forecasts. For example, we give each user their own images and hidden answer mapping, track which images you have seen, record timestamps that cannot be changed, and detect duplicate accounts, automation, and manipulation.
3. Produce aggregates. Your forecasts feed Crowd View, and, if you are an Indigo panel member, your assigned submissions feed Indigo Insight. Aggregates are designed to show combined results without revealing any individual's forecast (Section 5.3).
4. Run the Indigo program. The panel is not operating yet; until it is, this purpose is limited to calculating candidate status (Section 3.3). Once it operates, this includes identifying candidates, reviewing and inviting them, onboarding members, managing assignments, paying contractors, and meeting related legal and tax obligations.
5. Process payments. This includes managing subscriptions, upgrades, downgrades, cancellations, withdrawals, and failed payments, and keeping financial records.
6. Communicate with you. We send verification codes, security alerts, notices of account changes, subscription confirmations and reminders, billing notices, moderation notices, answers to your requests, and important changes to the Service or our terms. We will send marketing emails only where the law allows, and you can always unsubscribe. We do not currently send marketing email.
7. Keep the Service and its users safe. This includes moderating content, handling reports and appeals, enforcing our Terms, preventing fraud and abuse, and securing our systems.
8. Improve the Service and conduct research. We analyze usage and forecast data, mainly in aggregated or de-identified form, to improve features, scoring methods, and image selection, and to study forecasting performance. If we publish research, it will contain only aggregated or de-identified information.
9. Meet legal obligations and protect rights. This includes complying with law, responding to lawful requests, keeping tax and accounting records, keeping records of your agreement to our Terms and subscription terms, and establishing or defending legal claims.
10. Promote the Service. Leaderboards are public in the Service. If you turn on promotional featuring in Settings, we may feature posts you have published and your leaderboard entry, with your username, on our website and in promotional materials. You can turn it off at any time (Section 5.1).

3.2 AI and machine learning

We do not currently use your content to train artificial intelligence models, and we do not share it with third parties to train theirs. If this changes, we will update this policy before the change and, where required, ask for your consent.

3.3 Automated rankings and Indigo candidate status

The Indigo panel is not operating yet, and we have not invited anyone to it. We calculate candidate status from the start so that track records built now can count if the panel launches. Information described in this policy for panel members, such as onboarding, tax, and payout details, is collected only once the panel operates and only from members.

Leaderboards and Indigo candidate status are calculated automatically from your scored viewings, using minimum sample sizes and conservative statistical methods. Candidate status only makes a user eligible to be considered for the panel. Invitations involve human review, and no decision with legal or similarly significant effects is made about you solely by automated means. If you have questions about how your statistics are calculated, contact us.

We offer the Service only to people who live in the United States, including Puerto Rico, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa, and this policy is written for U.S. law. If we offer the Service in other countries, we will update this policy before we do.

5.1 Visible to other users

The following is visible to other signed-in users of the Service. Profile pages, posts, and comments are not shown to people who are not signed in, except for posts we feature as described below.

• Your username, display name, headline, profile image, banner, and join date.
• Your follower and following counts, and the lists of accounts you follow and that follow you.
• Your performance summary, such as scored attempts, accuracy, skill scores, and calibration, and your leaderboard rank once you are eligible. These are calculated from all of your eligible viewings, including viewings you never posted and viewings on private questions. Individual unposted viewings are not shown.
• An Indigo Viewer badge, if you are an active panel member.
• Posts and comments you publish. A viewing post shows the question, your selected answer, timestamps, and, once available, the result and the correct image. It also shows any blurb you wrote and, only if you choose to include them, your sealed notes, sketches, and photos.
• For viewing posts about private questions, the question's text and parameters, but only if you confirm that you want to include them.
• The total number of likes on each post. Other users do not see who liked a post.

Visible to anyone. Leaderboards are public. Once you are eligible, anyone, including people who are not signed in, can see your leaderboard entry: your username, your rank, and the statistics shown on the leaderboard, such as your number of scored attempts. We show your leaderboard entry on our website or in materials that promote the Service only if you have turned on promotional featuring. There is no setting to hide from leaderboards in the Service. Closing your account removes your entries (Section 7.1).

Featured posts. If you turn on promotional featuring in Settings (it is off unless you choose it, and accepting our Terms does not turn it on), we may feature posts you have published, together with your username, on our website and in materials that promote the Service (Terms Section 10.3). A featured post shows only what you chose to publish in it. We do not use your display name or profile image for this. When you turn the setting off or ask us to, we stop using your posts and leaderboard entry in new materials. We also stop featuring a post in new materials if you delete it.

5.2 Not visible to other users

• Your email address, password, sign-in activity, and IP address.
• Your subscription and payment information.
• Your private questions, unless you publish a viewing post about one and confirm, as described above.
• Viewings you have not posted, and impressions you have not included in a post.
• Which posts and comments you have liked.
• Reports you have made.
• Your Indigo candidate status, and any panel member's contract, compensation, and onboarding details.

Blocked users cannot interact with you, but they may be able to tell that they are blocked.

5.3 Aggregates

Your forecasts contribute to Crowd View. If you are an active Indigo panel member, your assigned submissions also contribute to Indigo Insight, which will be available to Premium subscribers once the panel operates and Premium is offered. Aggregates show combined results and do not name or attribute forecasts to anyone. To reduce the chance that someone could work out an individual forecast from an aggregate, we show an aggregate only once it has a minimum number of forecasts. While viewing on a question is open, we update published values in batches of several new forecasts rather than after each one. When viewing closes, the final tally may include a smaller number of additional forecasts. These safeguards reduce, but cannot eliminate, the chance that someone could infer an individual forecast, for example when everyone in a batch chose the same answer. Our Terms prohibit users from trying to identify individuals from aggregates.

5.4 Remember that public content can be copied

Anyone who can see your public content can copy it or take screenshots. If you delete content or close your account, we remove it from the Service, but we cannot remove copies other people have already made.

We do not sell your personal information, and we do not share it for cross-context behavioral advertising or targeted advertising. We share personal information only as follows:

• Service providers. Companies that process information on our behalf under contracts that limit their use of it to providing services to us. They fall into these categories:
  • cloud hosting, databases, and file storage, located in the United States;
  • transactional email delivery;
  • infrastructure monitoring and logging;
  • email, phone, and productivity tools we use to communicate with you;
  • customer support tools, if we use them; and
  • identity, tax, and payout onboarding for Indigo panel members, once the panel operates.
• Stripe. Stripe, Inc. processes subscription payments for us. For some activities, such as fraud prevention, meeting its own legal obligations, and improving its services, Stripe acts as an independent controller and uses information under its own privacy policy, not only on our instructions.
• Other users, as described in Section 5.
• Aggregated and de-identified data. We may publish aggregated data, such as Crowd View and Indigo Insight values, in the Service and elsewhere. We may also provide aggregated or de-identified data, such as historical forecast statistics, to Premium subscribers once Premium is offered and, in the future, to commercial data customers, including under paid licenses. This data is built only from forecast facts. It never includes your impression notes, sketches, photos, posts, comments, or profile. We keep de-identified data in de-identified form and do not attempt to re-identify it. When we provide it to a recipient under a contract, such as a data license, the contract prohibits re-identification. When we publish aggregates openly, we rely on the safeguards in Section 5.3 instead.
• Legal and safety reasons. We share information when we believe in good faith that it is required by law, subpoena, or court order, or that it is needed to protect the rights, property, or safety of Precognitrade, our users, or others. This includes reporting apparent child sexual exploitation to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children.
• Professional advisers. We share information with lawyers, accountants, auditors, and insurers, who are bound by confidentiality obligations.
• Business transfers. If we are involved in a merger, acquisition, financing, reorganization, bankruptcy, or sale of assets, personal information may be transferred as part of that transaction. It will remain subject to the promises in this policy unless you are notified otherwise.
• With your consent or at your direction.

We keep personal information only as long as we need it for the purposes in this policy, and we keep different kinds of information for different periods. The "post-closure period" below means 12 months after you close your account. We chose this length because payment disputes and chargebacks can be raised for months after a charge, investigations of abuse or reports involving an account can take months to complete, and we may need these records to establish or defend legal claims.

Earlier deadlines still apply. If information was already scheduled for deletion before you closed your account, for example a post you deleted, closing your account does not extend that deadline. The earlier deadline applies unless one of the exceptions at the end of this section applies, and we record the reason for any exception.

We may keep specific information longer when we are legally required to, for example because of a legal hold, or when we need it to establish or defend a legal claim. We keep it only for that purpose and only while the need lasts.

7.1 What happens when you close your account

• Immediately: your password and linked sign-in identities are deleted, all your sessions end, and pending verification or reset codes are invalidated. Your profile, posts, comments (including the replies beneath them), and leaderboard entries stop being visible to everyone, including you. Paid subscriptions are canceled.
• During the post-closure period:
  • Forecast facts you submitted before closing continue to be processed so that open questions resolve normally, your results are recorded, and historical results stay consistent. If you were an Indigo panel member, this includes your assigned submissions.
  • All other retained account data, including your email address, profile, impression notes, sketches and photos, posts, and comments, is restricted to authorized personnel. It is used only to handle billing disputes and chargebacks, keep the Service secure, investigate abuse and reports that involve your account, and establish or defend legal claims.
• At the end of the post-closure period: we delete your email address, profile, profile media, impression notes, sketches and photos, posts, comments, likes, follows, and blocks, and we pseudonymize your forecast facts (Section 7.2). The only records we keep longer are those listed in the table above, such as billing, agreement, and enforcement records, plus your reserved username.

Aggregate results that were calculated before closure and do not identify anyone, such as Crowd View values, may be kept as they are. Account-level scores, rankings, and the records behind them are not exempt. They follow the retention and pseudonymization rules above.

7.2 How we pseudonymize forecast facts

Scores, rankings, and aggregates depend on a stable historical record, so we keep your forecast facts after the post-closure period, but not your identity. When we pseudonymize forecast facts, we:

• delete all free-form and media content connected to them, including impression notes, sketches, photos, blurbs, posts, and comments;
• delete your email address and profile, and separate your username from your records, keeping it only on a list of reserved names so no one else can take it;
• keep the forecast facts themselves linked only to an internal identifier that is not connected to any contact details, profile, or username; and
• apply the same deletion to our logs, email provider (where we may keep a suppression entry so we do not email you again), support tools, and other systems where copies exist, and ask Stripe to delete or redact what it holds for us where the law allows, except records we must keep under the table above. Backups expire on the rolling schedule above. If we ever restore from a backup, information deleted after that backup was made may return; we delete it again when we learn of it.

Pseudonymized data is not anonymous. For example, someone who saved one of your posts might be able to match it to the remaining facts. We do not attempt to re-identify pseudonymized forecast facts, and we use them only to keep scores, rankings, aggregates, and historical records consistent. If we ever provide forecast data outside Precognitrade (Section 6), we first de-identify the copy we provide so it cannot reasonably be linked to anyone, for example by coarsening timestamps, and we contractually prohibit recipients from re-identifying it.

7.3 Asking us to delete your information sooner

You do not have to wait for the post-closure period. You can ask us to delete your personal information at any time, before or after closing your account (Section 9). A deletion request goes further than closing your account. When we honor it, we do not wait for the post-closure period, and we delete, de-identify, or aggregate the covered personal information, including your forecast facts, unless a legal exception lets us keep particular records. Pseudonymization alone (Section 7.2) is not treated as deletion. Aggregate results already calculated, such as Crowd View values, may be kept because they do not identify you. We decide any exception record by record, for example financial records the law requires us to keep, records needed for an active security, fraud, or abuse investigation involving your account, records under a legal hold, and records needed to establish or defend legal claims, and we tell you what we kept and why. Closing your account through settings starts the post-closure period. It is not itself a deletion request. However, if you ask us to delete your personal information, including in the same message in which you ask us to close your account, we treat it as a deletion request, whichever way you contact us.

We use administrative, technical, and physical safeguards designed to protect personal information, including:

• encrypted connections (HTTPS/TLS) for all traffic to the Service, and encryption of databases, file storage, and backups at rest;
• memory-hard password hashing (Argon2id);
• storing only keyed hashes of session tokens and verification codes, so a copy of our database alone would not let someone sign in as you;
• secure, HttpOnly session cookies, cross-site request forgery protections, and rate limiting on sensitive actions;
• re-encoding uploaded images to remove embedded metadata;
• restricting administrative access, and audit logging of administrative, moderation, and billing actions; and
• separating payment processing to Stripe, so we never handle card numbers.

No system is completely secure, and we cannot guarantee the security of your information. Please use a strong password that you do not use anywhere else. If we learn of a security breach that affects your personal information, we will notify you and the authorities as the law requires.

9.1 Choices in the Service

• Edit your display name. A nonempty display name is required.
• Edit or remove your headline, profile image, and banner.
• Change your username, email address, or password, and sign out of all sessions.
• For each viewing, decide whether to post it now, have it posted automatically after it resolves (always, or only if you were correct), or not post it at all.
• Choose whether to include your sealed impressions in a viewing post. This is on by default; you can turn it off before publishing or scheduling a post.
• Choose who can comment on each post, delete your posts, and block other users.
• Turn promotional featuring of your posts and leaderboard entry on or off in Settings (Privacy).
• Close your account permanently from account settings.

9.2 Email

You cannot opt out of transactional and security emails while your account is open. You can unsubscribe from any marketing email using the link in the message.

9.3 Your privacy rights

Depending on where you live, you may have the right to:

• Access and know what personal information we hold about you and how we use and share it, and receive a copy;
• Correct inaccurate personal information;
• Delete personal information, subject to legal exceptions (see Section 7.3);
• Receive your data in a portable format;
• Opt out of the sale or sharing of personal information, targeted advertising, and profiling that has legal or similarly significant effects. We do not do any of these;
• Withdraw consent where we rely on it;
• Appeal our decision on your request; and
• Complain to your state attorney general.

9.4 How to make a request

Email privacy@precognitrade.com from the email address on your account. That is the fastest route, but we will recognize a privacy request however you contact us, and you don't need to use any particular wording. You can make a request even after closing your account. We may need to verify your identity, for example by confirming that you control the email address on the account. If an authorized agent makes a request for you, we may ask for proof of their authority and may ask you to verify your identity directly.

We respond within the time the law requires, generally within 45 days. We may extend that period where the law allows and will tell you if we do. Requests are free unless they are clearly unfounded or excessive.

If we deny your request, we will explain why. Where the law gives you a right to appeal, reply to our decision with "Appeal" in the subject line, and we will respond within 45 days. If you are not satisfied with the result of your appeal, you may contact your state attorney general.

We will not discriminate against you for exercising your privacy rights.

This section supplements the rest of this policy for residents of California and other U.S. states with comprehensive privacy laws. This policy serves as our notice at collection.

Categories of personal information we have collected in the past 12 months:

We collect this information from the sources described in Section 1, for the purposes described in Section 3, and we keep it for the periods described in Section 7.

• No sale or sharing. We have not sold personal information or shared it for cross-context behavioral advertising in the past 12 months, and we do not do so. We have no actual knowledge of selling or sharing the personal information of anyone under 16.
• Sensitive personal information. We use sensitive personal information only for purposes the law permits without offering a right to limit, such as providing the Service, security, and meeting legal obligations.
• Global Privacy Control. We treat a Global Privacy Control signal as a valid request to opt out of sale and sharing. Because we do not sell or share personal information, the signal does not change how the Service works.
• Do Not Track. See Section 2.2.
• De-identified information. Where we keep or disclose de-identified information, we keep it in de-identified form, do not attempt to re-identify it, and contractually require recipients not to re-identify it.
• California "Shine the Light." We do not disclose personal information to third parties for their own direct marketing purposes.
• Financial incentives. We do not offer financial incentives in exchange for personal information.

We are based in the United States, we offer the Service only to people who live in the United States, and we store information in the United States. Some of our service providers, such as Stripe, may also process information in other countries under their own safeguards.

The Service is for adults aged 18 and over, and it is not directed at children. We ask everyone to confirm that they are 18 or older when they sign up. We do not knowingly collect personal information from anyone under 18, except the minimum we need to handle a safety report, a content-removal request, or a legal obligation involving a minor, such as a report to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children. If we learn that someone under 18 has created an account, we will close it and delete their personal information as the law requires. If you believe a minor has given us personal information, contact privacy@precognitrade.com.

The Service links to third-party sites, such as source prediction markets, and uses third-party services, such as Stripe checkout. Those sites and services have their own privacy policies, and we are not responsible for their practices.

We may update this policy from time to time. If we make a material change, we will notify you by email or in the Service at least 14 days before it takes effect, unless the change is required by law or needed to address a security issue, in which case it may take effect sooner. We will ask for your consent where the law requires. The "Last updated" date at the top shows when the policy last changed.

Precognitrade LLC
Attn: Privacy
971 US Highway 202N #7870
Branchburg, NJ 08876
privacy@precognitrade.com